Calculate the Expected Value of any bet and cashout strategy in Spribe's Aviator
How Aviator EV Works
EV = (P(win) × Payout) − Bet
Where P(win) = 0.97 ÷ Cashout Multiplier | Payout = Bet × Multiplier
Aviator has a fixed 97% RTP (Return to Player). The probability that the plane reaches any multiplier m is exactly 0.97 ÷ m. This means the Expected Value of every bet is always −3% of your wager, regardless of your cashout target. No strategy can change this.
Calculate Your EV
EV Breakdown — Single Bet
Win Probability
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Lose Probability
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EV per Bet
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If You Win
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If You Lose
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EV per Round ($)
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Over 100 Rounds
Total Wagered
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Expected Loss
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Expected Wins
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Expected Return
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House Take
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EV Comparison Table
Comparing EV across different cashout targets at your bet size. All have the same -3% EV — the difference is volatility.
Cashout
Win Prob
Profit if Win
EV / Bet
EV / 100 Rounds
Volatility
Win Probability by Multiplier
Key insight: Lower cashout targets win more often but pay less per win. Higher targets pay more but hit less often. The expected value is always −3% regardless. The choice is about volatility preference, not edge.
Dual Bet EV Calculator
Aviator lets you place 2 independent bets per round. Enter both bets to see the combined EV:
Bet 1VSBet 2Combined
Bet
Cashout
Win Prob
EV / Round
Combined Round Outcomes
Scenario
Probability
Net P&L
Weighted EV
Both bets share the same crash point each round. If the plane crashes at 1.20x, both bets targeting above 1.20x lose. Dual bets do not reduce the house edge — combined EV is still −3% of total wagered.
The Math Behind Aviator
P(crash > m) = 0.97 / m
Probability the plane survives past multiplier m
EV = Bet × [(0.97/m) × m + (1 - 0.97/m) × 0] - Bet = -0.03 × Bet
Expected Value simplifies to exactly −3% of your bet, for ANY cashout target
No strategy beats the house edge. Whether you cashout at 1.10x or 100x, the expected loss is always 3% of what you wager. Martingale, anti-martingale, pattern-based, or "predictor" strategies cannot change this mathematical fact. Aviator's crash points are generated by a provably fair algorithm — each round is completely independent.