Aviator Risk Calculator

Calculate your probability of reaching a profit target vs. going bust

Your Setup

Risk Assessment

-
Prob. of Reaching Target
-
Prob. of Going Bust
-
Expected Rounds to Target
-
Expected Rounds to Bust
-
Expected Final Balance
-

Outcome Probabilities (10,000 Simulations)

Risk at Different Bet Sizes

How your bust probability changes with different bet sizes (same target):

The Math

Risk of Ruin ≈ (1 - edge/variance)^(bankroll/bet) With a negative edge (house advantage), ruin probability increases with more rounds played
Key insight: With Aviator's -3% house edge, the longer you play, the more certain your losses become. Short sessions have high variance (you might profit), but over many rounds, the house edge grinds down every bankroll. The only way to "win" long-term is to get lucky and stop.